Macro read - recession risk, yield curve, and FRED data

Economics

The read

The composite recession score is 26/100 - Low Risk. Economic indicators are generally healthy. No major recession signals detected. Flags right now: Housing Starts. The 10Y-2Y yield curve is positive (0.50%), so it is not inverted today.

Plain-language summary of TrendNalysis analytics - the underlying data and methodology are shown below. Educational, not advice.

Low Risk. One indicator (Housing Starts) warrants monitoring.

Recession risk

Low

Economic regime

NEUTRAL

Indicators read

Elevated: Housing Starts

10Y-2Y Treasury spread

Yield-curve gap; the most-watched recession lead. · as of 2026-08-21

Caution

0.50%

10Y-3M Treasury spread

Near-term recession-timing version of the curve. · as of 2026-08-21

Caution

0.86%

Initial jobless claims

Weekly layoff filings - a fast labor-market read. · as of 2026-08-15

Healthy

206.0K

How this score is built

Each indicator is scored on how far it has moved from a healthy reading toward a warning one, then blended into a 0-100 composite. The bands: 0-33 low risk, 33-66 moderate, 66-100 high risk.

The exact thresholds and weights are proprietary and run server-side; the browser only receives finished scores and status labels - never the formula. Weights emphasize the most historically reliable leads (the yield curve, the Sahm rule) over lagging measures.

Data: Federal Reserve (FRED), with fresher employment prints from the BLS when available. Descriptive analytics for education, not a recession forecast or investment advice.

This product uses the FRED® API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Employment data courtesy of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, retrieved 2026-08-23. BLS cannot vouch for the accuracy or currentness of analyses derived from its data.

Economic data from FRED (Federal Reserve) and the BLS. The composite recession score and all status labels are computed server-side and shown as finished results - descriptive, educational analytics, not a recession forecast or investment advice.