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Financial Analysis

Filing-based analysis. Market pricing is not included. Fundamentals from SEC filings; economic data from FRED and the BLS. About our data

Fundamentals

Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. BAER

· Technology · Services-Business Services, NEC

FY2025 10-K, filed 2026-03-06
SEC EDGAR

Filing evidence summary

Mixed evidenceCoverage 4/5 core metrics

Latest reported free cash flow was -$64M.

Backward-looking filed evidence under visible rules - not a rating, forecast or investment advice. Missing data is never scored.

Evidence signals

  • Free cash flow was negative

    Latest reported free cash flow was -$64M.

    Why this surfaced

    Free cash flow = operating cash flow minus capital expenditures; positive is supporting evidence, not a valuation conclusion. Period end 2025-12-31.

  • Shareholders' equity was non-positive

    Debt/equity is shown as not meaningful rather than as a negative leverage ratio.

    Why this surfaced

    Same-period reported shareholders' equity was zero or negative; review the balance sheet and capital structure. Period end 2025-12-31.

  • 3 filing risk checks flagged

    Flagged areas: Solvency & liquidity, Dilution.

    Why this surfaced

    The full financial analysis shows each value, threshold, and sector limitation.

  • Revenue expanded

    Latest reported annual revenue changed +24.6% from the prior reported annual observation.

    Why this surfaced

    Direction threshold: above +2% constructive; below -2% caution; otherwise monitor. This is not labeled one-year growth when filing periods have a gap. Period end 2025-12-31.

  • Operating margin improved

    Operating margin changed +91.6 percentage points from the prior annual period.

    Why this surfaced

    Direction threshold: more than +1 percentage point constructive; below -1 point caution. Period end 2024-12-31.

Core trend metrics

Latest annual revenue growth
+24.6%
as of 2025-12-31
Latest annual operating margin
5.4%
as of 2024-12-31
Free cash flow
-$64M
as of 2025-12-31
Debt / equity
N/M
as of 2025-12-31

Hover a tile for its exact definition; the Statements tab carries per-cell filing citations.

Where to look next

Risk checks

3of 7 rule-based checks flagged
  • Solvency & liquidity
  • Dilution

Financial movement

  • Cash→ flat
  • Long-term debt→ flat
  • Inventory→ flat
  • Receivables→ flat
  • Current assets→ flat

Source & freshness

Source
SEC EDGAR XBRL
Fetched
2026-09-06
Latest period end
2025-12-31
Filings
EDGAR ↗

Reported segment mix

figures as filed · share of the filed sum · change vs the prior period in the same filing
Fiscal year ending 2025-12-3110-K filed 2026-03-06prior period 2024-12-31 from the same filingView filing
By business segment
Revenue
  • Reportable Segment$123M
    100.0%
    +24.6% yoy

Members sum to the consolidated $123M for this period.

By geography
Revenue
  • United States$109M
    88.6%
    +22.9% yoy
  • Spain$14M
    11.4%
    +38.7% yoy

Members sum to the consolidated $123M for this period.

Latest quarter
Quarter ending 2026-03-3110-Q filed 2026-05-08prior period 2025-03-31 from the same filingView filing
  • Reportable Segment$8.51M
    100.0%
    -45.6% yoy

Change is against the same quarter a year earlier, as reported in the same 10-Q.

Source: SEC DERA Financial Statement and Notes data sets. Dimensional XBRL facts on the business-segment, product/service and geographic axes; the engine keeps the accession of every figure. Descriptive and educational, not advice.

Peer percentiles

latest fiscal year ending 2025-12-31 · among 4,096 US-listed filers · 815 in Technology
MetricValuevs all filersvs sector
Revenue
latest fiscal-year revenue as filed
$123M
29thof 3,301
bottom third
26thof 777
bottom third
Revenue growth
latest fiscal-year revenue vs the prior fiscal year
24.6%
82ndof 3,135
top third
78thof 742
top third
Gross margin
gross profit ÷ revenue
42.1%
56thof 1,603
middle third
46thof 554
middle third
Net margin
net income ÷ revenue
3.4%
53rdof 3,263
middle third
56thof 769
middle third
Free-cash-flow margin
(operating cash flow − |capex|) ÷ revenue
-52.3%
15thof 2,679
bottom third
11thof 701
bottom third
Stock comp ÷ revenue
stock-based compensation ÷ revenue · lower is ranked higher
5.8%
33rdof 2,895
bottom third
42ndof 728
middle third
Net debt ÷ operating cash flow
net debt ÷ operating cash flow (OCF > 0) · lower is ranked higher
10.8×
9thof 1,547
bottom third
7thof 338
bottom third

Each filer's latest fiscal year as stored by the nightly crawl; fiscal year ends differ across the universe. A metric ranks only filers for which it is computable from filed facts. Ties split; a rank reads "better than N% of filers" in the metric's own direction. Descriptive and educational, not a rating.

Earnings quality

latest fiscal year ending 2025-12-31 · accruals and cash conversion as filed
Cash conversion
4.04×
operating cash flow ÷ net income, latest fiscal year
Cash-flow accrual ratio
-4.1%
(net income − operating cash flow) ÷ average total assets
Balance-sheet accrual ratio
12.6%
change in net operating assets ÷ average net operating assets
Cash-backed years
4 of 4
fiscal years where operating cash flow met or exceeded net income
Mean cash conversion
4.04×
across the stored fiscal years with positive net income

Per fiscal year from filed facts: cash conversion = operating cash flow / net income (net income > 0); cash-flow accrual ratio = (net income - operating cash flow) / average total assets; balance-sheet accrual ratio = change in net operating assets / average net operating assets, NOA = (assets - cash) - (liabilities - debt). Descriptive; a missing input yields a missing ratio. High accrual ratios and cash conversion well below one are the measures the accruals literature associates with less persistent earnings; they are screens to read the cash-flow statement with, not conclusions. The per-year series is part of Pro risk analysis.

Point-in-time ledger

first-reported vs latest filing · periods since 2020-01-01 · 6 changed periods
Line itemPeriodFirst reportedLatest filingChangeFilings
Cash
CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue
balance at 2022-09-30$94.1M
10-Q 2023-05-12
$55.6M
10-Q 2023-11-13
-40.9%first · latest · 3 filings carry it
Operating cash flow
NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities
quarter 2024-03-31-$19.8M
10-Q 2024-05-14
-$22.8M
10-Q 2025-05-09
-15.2%first · latest · 3 filings carry it
Gross profit
GrossProfit
quarter 2023-09-30$38.4M
10-Q 2023-11-13
$37.6M
10-Q 2024-11-13
-2.0%first · latest · 3 filings carry it
Diluted shares
WeightedAverageNumberOfDilutedSharesOutstanding
fiscal year 2023-12-3178,908,017 shares
10-K 2024-03-20
77,527,381 shares
10-K 2025-03-14
-1.8%first · latest · 3 filings carry it
Diluted shares
WeightedAverageNumberOfDilutedSharesOutstanding
quarter 2023-03-3174,986,752 shares
10-Q 2023-05-12
74,112,969 shares
10-Q/A 2024-07-12
-1.2%first · latest · 4 filings carry it
Diluted shares
WeightedAverageNumberOfDilutedSharesOutstanding
quarter 2023-09-3078,895,759 shares
10-Q 2023-11-13
79,477,756 shares
10-Q 2024-11-13
+0.7%first · latest · 3 filings carry it

First filing reporting each period vs the latest filing carrying it (10-K and 10-Q only, periods since 2020, the extractor's winning tag per concept); a change under 0.5% is treated as rounding. A change can be a restatement, a reclassification or a re-tagging in a later comparative column; the two filings are linked so the reader can see which. Descriptive, not a verdict.

Notes by disclosure type

Not available for BAER yet: no footnote text blocks on file for this filer in the ingested DERA files.

Fundamentals from SEC EDGAR. Scores, the DCF, and every model shown are educational analysis, not investment advice or price predictions.

Educational content only. Not financial advice. TrendNalysis provides educational and informational financial analysis built from public SEC filings and economic data (FRED, BLS). It is not financial, investment, tax, or legal advice and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Market pricing is not currently included. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before investing.